Country specific information

How to read the analysis

Below, each country’s analysis contains:

a graph of the LSHTM projections of COVID-19 case totals over times (all age groups combined) for an unmitigated scenario plus ten disease containment scenarios (see explanation below);
a crop calendar showing when the crop production phases of key staple crops occur throughout the year (with multiple crop calendars in cases where variation in timing occurs);
a map of the country, with the sub-national area highlighted in cases where there are multiple crop calendars per country (due to variation in timing by area);
a legend listing the different containment scenarios included in the LSHTM model.

Scenario descriptions

In the LSHTM model, the researchers identify an unmitigated scenario (i.e. the government takes no action to contain the spread of COVID-19), as well as a variety of different containment scenarios. They model the impacts and timing of the spread of COVID-19 for each scenario, as a way to estimate which approach could have the largest impact on reducing and/or delaying the cases, deaths, and other effects of COVID-19.

The ten containment scenarios involve social distancing, shielding, and/or a combination of these strategies. The different strategies and selected scenarios are described below:

Greenzone shielding (GZ) was implemented in the model by stratifying the population in one shielded and one unshielded compartment. The GZ applies to those aged 60+ years. We assume shielding of this population has a coverage fraction, and reduction fraction; we refer to GZ interventions by coverage / reduction, so “80C80R shielding” is 80% coverage with 80% contact reduction to the shielded group.
Basic Public Health & Social Measures (PHSM) was implemented as a 20% reduction in general contacts outside the home and a 25% reduction in transmission from symptomatic individuals corresponding to symptomatic people being encouraged to self isolate.

Scenario Abbreviation	Scenario Name	Description
Unmitigated	Unmitigated	No restrictions, business as usual
20% distancing	20% distancing	20% of population social distancing
60% distancing	60% distancing	60% of population social distancing
40% in-home	40% in-home elder shielding	40% of elder population shielding
40C-80R GZ	40% shielding, 80% reduction	40% of elder population shielding, with 80% reduction in contacts for this group
60C-60R GZ	60% shielding, 60% reduction	60% of elder population shielding, with 60% reduction in contacts for this group
80C-80R GZ	80% shielding, 80% reduction	80% of elder population shielding, with 80% reduction in contacts for this group
basic PHSM	PHSM, school closure, lockdowns	Basic Public Health & Social Measures (PHSM), school closure, intermittent +40% lockdown
30 day 50%	30 day 50% lockdown, PHSM	30 day 50% lockdown then basic PHSM as described above
60 day 50%	60 day 50% lockdown, PHSM	60 day 50% lockdown then basic PHSM as described above
90 day 50%	90 day 50% lockdown, PHSM	90 day 50% lockdown then basic PHSM as described above

Caveats/Notes

These are projections based on a model with documented assumptions. That model will be updated as the LSHTM gathers more information, as noted here.
As noted above, the ‘Day 0’ used for the graphs here is an estimation of when a country reached a date with 50 active infections.
The quality of COVID-19-related data that is available for LMICs is variable and this likely impacts the accuracy of modeling.
A number of COVID-19 modeling efforts are underway. The use of the LSHTM modeling for this analysis does not imply USAID endorsement of this approach over others.
The crop calendars do not include all crops grown in the country, nor all those that are important as a food source or for income generation.
Maps, area names, and borders do not necessarily reflect the concurrence of the US Government.

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Afghanistan

Algeria

Bangladesh

Bolivia

Cabo Verde

Cambodia

Colombia

Cuba

Djibouti

Ecuador

Egypt

El Salvador

Eswatini

Guatemala

Guinea-Bissau

Haiti

Iran

Iraq

Lebanon

Libya

Malawi

Nepal

Niger

Pakistan

Peru

Rwanda

Sierra Leone

Somalia

South Africa

Sri Lanka

Sudan

Tajikistan

Tunisia

Uruguay

Yemen

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